Quick Thoughts – Future of the South 1/27/12
Every year at the start of the season, when I’m attempting to play the smart guy and predict the future, I usually get a few things right but mostly I’m wrong. That’s the nature of the business, as is the nature of the sports. There’s no such thing as a paper champion. I certainly wiffed on Tampa Bay having a 9-7 season and Cam Newton. My apology has already been made to Mr. Newton and now it’s onto expectations for next year and beyond. Newton clearly proved he belongs in the NFL. His talent alone is exciting as anyone in the league and he’s worth the price of the ticket for Charlotte residents. I think Carolina is going to be dangerous in 2012. In the upcoming draft they need to go after another offensive weapon and beef up the defensive pass rush.
Atlanta is one of the most perplexing teams in the league. It’s hard to figure out exactly what direction they need to go to improve. They have a good offense and defense, but nothing is great. The Falcons will always be as good as they are, not good enough. Does it come down to coaching? Motivation? I don’t trust Mike Smith at all. And I’m starting to lose faith in Matt Ryan, who I’ve been a huge supporter of. You look at Atlanta and see a perennial playoff team, but not a championship team. Not a team that’s ready for the big stage.
We know New Orleans is ready for the big stage, however they just fell short in San Francisco. I’m convinced that New Orleans can’t play outside of the Superdome, considering their 3 regular season and playoff losses, we’re all on the road. It’s good to be good at home, and that’s what travelling is meant to do. But the reason they lose on the road, is because they start off slow. They have a different vibe, sense of urgency on the road, and especially outside on grass. Brees is one of the 3 best quarterbacks in the game, but he doesn’t start well on day games in the grass. C’mon Brees, go outside once in a while and become friends with the sun. Maybe he needs a visor like Vick. Either way, the Saints 13-3 season went down to a 49ers who were also 13-3 and defensively outplayed the Saints. The Niners defense made the bigger plays in the bigger situations than the Saints D did. However, the Saints aren’t going anywhere, as long as Brees is around at least. Look for another strong year in 2012.
As for Tampa Bay, good luck Schiano. I like Greg Schiano, he’s a class guy who deserve an opportunity on the professional level. But his first head coaching gig with a broken team like the Bucs could be too much to handle. Tampa Bay is far away from another 10 win season like they had in 2010.
NFC South 2011 Predictions
Atlanta Falcons – After a great 13-3 regular season Atlanta fell short to eventual Super Bowl Champion Green Bay, yet a 13 win season is definitely a solid foundation to build on. And part of that foundation has a lot to do with QB Matt “Matty Ice” Ryan who’s on the cusp of breaking through that “elite” conversation. All Matt Ryan has done as the Falcons starter is win. In fact, the only other active player with a better winning percentage after three seasons as starter is Tom Brady. Obviously the difference is Brady won the big games, but let’s not completely get wrapped up on just championships because it is a team game. And when implementing the word team, the part of the team that let Atlanta down was it’s defense during their playoff loss, although they only allowed 288 points last year finishing 5th in the league.
The main concern with Atlanta is rookie WR Julio Jones. In many ways Jones is a wildcard because Atlanta gave away a lot for the guy knowing the severity of the lockout. Has Jones had enough time with a shortened preseason to learn the offense and get his timing down with Ryan? The overall element of a guy like Jones does nothing but add another threat to compliment Roddy White who had the best season of any receiver in the league. And has everyone forgotten about Michael Turner who had a quiet 1,371 yards last year? In fact, the entire off-season has been quiet for Atlanta but I think they’re ready to wake everyone back up.
Atlanta Falcons 12-4
Carolina Panthers – Should Carolina change their franchise name to the Fighting Cams in tribute of soon to be #1 overall draft bust Cam Newton? Or should we at least give Cam the benefit of the doubt that he might be able to muster up a few wins on just his athleticism? Hopefully Newton will be good at handing the off the rock to one of his running-backs Jonathan Stewart or DeAngelo Williams who are both poised for comeback seasons. The underlying problem with Carolina in 2010 is their offense was simply god-awful. They could only generate 16 TD’s throughout the entire season. If you want perspective Green Bay scored 16 TD’s in just the playoffs. Green Bay scored 16 TD’s in 4 games and that’s all the Carolina offense could produce in 16.
With all the bad from a year ago there has to be some good right? Is that good going to be Cam Newton who even new head coach Ron Rivera said he’s concerned with vaulting Cam from a spread style college offense into a pro-style system. NFL playbooks are complicated and Newton was only responsible for a dozen plays at Auburn, the rest of the offense was predicated on his athleticism. He certainly hasn’t looked good throughout the preseason, in fact he’s looked lost. Again, hopefully he’ll be good at handing the ball to one of his backs.
Carolina Panthers 4-12
New Orleans Saints – Has everyone seemingly forgotten about the Saints who won Super Bowl XLIV just two seasons ago? 2010 ended with a loss to the Seattle Seahawks, who was the first team in NFL history to enter the playoffs with a losing record. That loss certainly left New Orleans scratching their heads but there’s now a new sense of urgency and motivation especially after watching their ground game plummet from 6th of ’09 to 28th last year. There inefficiencies on the ground inspired them to give up a bit in the draft for the right to pick up Mark Ingram that adds depth at the RB position.
Sean Payton will make it a point to focus on the ground game this season as it’s success was obvious in their Super Bowl run. And anytime you have a guy like Drew Breese throwing the ball you’re guaranteed 4,000 yards and 25 or more TD’s although it’s imperative that number of 22 picks from a year ago gets chopped in half in a hurry. The Saints are going to be in prime shape to contend for the NFC South title which makes sense because no team in the South wins back-to-back division titles. Oh and by the way, that explosive offense continues to overshadow what is a nasty, ballhawking defense that finished 7th last season. Get ready for the Saints to make another run.
New Orleans Saints 11-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – It must be difficult to finish with a 10-6 record and still miss the post-season like the Bucs did in 2010. Sort of like the Texans of the AFC South, the Bucs are quickly becoming that team people are increasingly talking about and for very good reason. Young QB Josh Freeman is the real deal. If Freeman is the starting QB in any other city not Tampa, he’s talked about to a nauseating level because not only did the guy throw 25 TD’s, he only threw 6 INT’s in his first full season. But Freeman is OK laying slightly under the radar and so is head coach Raheem Morris who finished 2nd to Bill Belichick for NFL Coach of the Year in 2010. Morris brings a ‘Mike Tomlin like’ swagger and presence to the table mainly because Tomlin is his mentor, but Morris never uses injuries as an excuse, and the blame for a loss is always predicated on his overall preparedness.
The only concern with Tampa however cliché as it is, is their inexperience, especially compared to that of the Saints and Falcons as division rivals. Not to say they can’t break open because Freeman is a stud, RB LeGarrette Blount is a beast and their defense finished 9th overall in 2010. However, I don’t see enough wins in their scheduled to leap them past Atlanta and New Orleans. Tampa will put an always interesting, yet prepared team on the field and will compete in pretty much every game on the schedule. But they’re going to fall just a little short this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7
